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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.