Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.
A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict
The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.
Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.
"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.
More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.
Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.
Logistical Nightmare and Pressure
Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.
The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.
All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.
A Limited Vote
The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.
There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.
Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.
Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.
Criticism and Rejection
"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.
Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.
The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".
"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".
